COVID–19: Mortality Rate, Life Cycle / Strains, Transmission (2 Viewers)

[Laron]

[As of December 21, 2020, we now have a board dedicated to COVID-19, which is here: https://www.transients.info/roundtable/forums/coronavirus/. Feel free to post on this thread, or create a new one on the new board for content relating to the coronavirus.]

This thread is dedicated to all forum content on coronavirus that relates to the morality rate, life cycle including strains, transmission and general information around these topics.

Here's some information on the mortality rate below from an older post of mine.

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A lot of people approach me privately for advice on this and I usually include mention that I feel a whole lot more people have been infected that are not part of the known numbers. There are some great logical reasons as to why, but that was simply my intuition picking up on it. Another important factor is that many people don't know they are infected because they have mild to no symptoms.

It's good to see some numbers and logic applied by Ben below which validates my feelings on this.

Here's a re-post of a post by Ben Davidson from his Facebook page. You may know him as one of the more reliable experts on space weather who runs the Suspicious0bservers YouTube channel.

"Credibility to Speak: I discovered the MOA of a biomimetic antimicrobial that is strongly anti-viral, and then helped put it through the FDA. I understand how surface charge and hydrophobicity of molecule components play critical roles in interactions between innate immune peptides like LL-37, and pathogens. I understand the key vulnerabilities of viruses to human defenses, and how virus spread... but most importantly: HOW UN-FREAKING-BELIEVABLY SELECTIVE THEY CAN BE!!!!!!​

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SIMPLE MATH:​

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The death rate of the Coronavirus is 2-3%.... among those confirmed to have it.​

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Testing has been a grand failure. 80-90% have few/no symptoms and will NEVER be tested.​

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So let's give them 80% to help out. If that's that case, the 2-3% goes against just 20% of the population, which comes down well under 1% for a REAL kill rate of the virus.​

In reality, the devil's advocate doesn't get to play. It's closer to 90%, and that puts the real kill rate around 0.2% BEFORE you consider how many people got it, beat it, and moved on, never ever to be tested or counted in the stats.​

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The coronavirus kill rate is 0.1%.​

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Anyone disagreeing may attack the math if you wish.​

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If you are old or immunocompromised, be safe. If you have symptoms and are feeling like you could be in the unlucky percentage - GO SEEK MEDICAL ATTENTION. There is not any more reason to ignore real health issue than there is to freak out over this virus. If you are sick, you need a doctor.​

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FACT: Placebo affect takes out billion dollar drugs at final FDA stages almost every year... its just you thinking. Your thoughts are stronger than physics and chemistry in the system of your self. That goes both ways, positive and negative, confidence and fear. Don't make yourself WORSE by all-of-a-sudden believing a media you KNOW DAMN WELL to be a complete lie factory.​

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Believe the media on COVID? Did you believe their polls before the 2016 election? I believe in their ties to big Pharma, and that goes double for the CDC."​

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• COVID–19: Mortality Rate, Life Cycle / Strains, Transmission

 

[Bert]

I will just put this advice in this tread. -

Apparently taking anti inflammatory drugs like ibuprofen, Diclofenac or other NSAID's type drugs worsens the effect of the disease. half of the people in intensive care are young and have taken these drugs when getting sick, worsening the situation. this has been confirmed to me by medical personnel I know;
If you want to take something against the fever or pain take a paracetamol based product.

In my opinion even better: don't take fever suppressing medication if possible. I have noticed with my kids that they heal much faster (2-3 days compared to a week) if we don't give something against the fever (when lower than 39-40 °C) during the day. In the evening we give it once just to help them have a good nights sleep. fever is the natural way of the body to make it difficult for the virus to multiply.

PS if you give them a fever suppressant and the temperature doesn't go down with your kids seek medical help as fast as you can. then they are really sick.

 

[Toller]

The coronavirus kill rate is 0.1%.

It looks as though that is what the UKs scientific advisor thinks as well :-

Latest News & Current Event Updates | Yahoo News Singapore

Discover the latest news and headlines on breaking news stories and in-depth coverage with photos and videos from trending hot topics to viral news.

ph.news.yahoo.com

The government’s chief scientific adviser has suggested there could already be 55,000 coronavirus cases in the UK.

On Tuesday, health and social care committee chairman Jeremy Hunt asked Sir Patrick Vallance whether the expected death rate was one fatality for every 1,000 cases, which would mean there is “potentially 55,000 cases”.

Asked if this could be correct, Sir Patrick said: “If you put all the modelling information together, that’s a reasonable ballpark way of looking at it.

“It’s not more accurate than that.”

NB. CoVID19 is also known as SARS-CoV-2

 

[therium]

My calculations were close to that also. My calculations give me about 0.4% death rate. So let's say we get the numbers from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries. The numbers of the infected ONLY included people with a positive test. There are at least 10x as many people who were never tested, or never even went to the doctor.

So taking infections (positive test only) of 212,799, deaths of 8787 we get a mortality rate of 4.1%. So now let's take more reasonable numbers of the infected.

Infected 2,127,990
Deaths: 8787
Death rate: 0.41% at most

And most of the deaths (at least 80%) are from people with serious preexisting conditions, especially among the elderly.

No fear.

 

[Laron]

Some more supporting info:

Stanford Professor: Data Indicates We’re Severely Overreacting To Coronavirus​

"The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population. This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%)."​

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/​

(John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science)​

 

[Laron]

Multiple Stanford Medical Professors Question If COVID-19 Is Really “As Deadly As They Say”​

• The Facts:​

Three Stanford professors of medicine has chimed in on the current coronavirus crises and share their expert opinion that extraordinary claims require extraordinary data.​

• Reflect On:​

Is what is happening around the world really necessary? Why aren't the same measures taken for diseases or viruses that may have a large infection/fatality rate that have been in existence for years? Is it better to be safe than sorry in this case?​

https://www.collective-evolution.com/2020/03/26/multiple-stanford-medical-professors-question-if-covid-19-is-really-as-deadly-as-they-say/​

Similar to the above post but this one is new from CE covering 3 of them.

 

[Kristiina]

While agreeing that the fatality rate needs to be reflected by the real infection amount, I would not compare this to a other existing influenza virus diseases.
While media is certainly spreading the fear, it is a fact that in Italy, now Spain, the healthcare systems are breaking with the overwhelmed amount of people in the need of intensive care (of all ages, not just old).

Fear, restrictions, economic collapsing. Do I believe that this was a virus originated in Wuhan wild animal market. Certainly not!

 

[Linda]

Someone asked how it was going in Texas, and I was stunned. I'd say it started about 2 weeks ago, and data from the major cities, which is reported by age, shows similar trends in Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. (Dallas only reported totals, and was too tired to look at El Paso.)

Drum roll - ages 60 and up accounted for about 25% of the cases. There were a few children and the rest were spread out fairly evenly in the 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, and 50-59 age ranges.

 

[Bert]

Multiple Stanford Medical Professors Question If COVID-19 Is Really “As Deadly As They Say”​

• The Facts:​

Three Stanford professors of medicine has chimed in on the current coronavirus crises and share their expert opinion that extraordinary claims require extraordinary data.​

• Reflect On:​

Is what is happening around the world really necessary? Why aren't the same measures taken for diseases or viruses that may have a large infection/fatality rate that have been in existence for years? Is it better to be safe than sorry in this case?​

https://www.collective-evolution.com/2020/03/26/multiple-stanford-medical-professors-question-if-covid-19-is-really-as-deadly-as-they-say/​

Similar to the above post but this one is new from CE covering 3 of them.

this is the line that really stayed with me. we lost another part of our freedom.
If I look at change management in companies you need to at least stretch you effort 1 year to have a lasting effect of the change you want to do. Otherwise things will return to the old situation. you need 2 years of effort to make a lasting change. off course this is very traumatizing thus making the periods shorter.
In Belgium the virologists are already talking about a year of restrictions... Now read the quote below again:

One of the latest examples I recently wrote about comes from Dr. Ron Paul, physician and long time politician, who stated the following:

People should ask themselves whether this coronavirus “pandemic” could be a big hoax, with the actual danger of the disease massively exaggerated by those who seek to profit – financially or politically – from the ensuing panic.
That is not to say the disease is harmless. Without question people will die from coronavirus. Those in vulnerable categories should take precautions to limit their risk of exposure. But we have seen this movie before. Government over-hypes a threat as an excuse to grab more of our freedoms. When the “threat” is over, however, they never give us our freedoms back. (source)

 

[Sinera]

US is now on #1 regarding total cases according to this count. The MSM already start blaming Trump. It is a shame that it is misused for political gains (as happens so often).

Coronavirus Update (Live): 139,716,185 Cases and 3,000,243 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[therium]

I ran some numbers, all with sources, some with studies behind them, showing the mortality rate of COVID-19 is, at most, 0.45%. Mortality of flu is about 0.06%. But flu affects 9x more people each year. Now that we know at least New York is faking numbers by changing reason of death to coronavirus, it is safe to assume other hospitals will do so in some other areas.

In 7-14 days the US will have reached the top of the exponential curve and positive test cases and deaths will have peaked, and will sharply decline after that. Italy is having higher numbers per capita because they think "quarantine in place" means having huge family gatherings. They tend to be very family oriented.

Spreadsheet with numbers here:
Apparently the embedded SS above shows the live numbers in the actual spreadsheet, and is not a one-time screen shot.

 

[Laron]

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate “May Be Considerably Less Than 1%” – Dr. Anthony Fauci
"Dr. Anthony Fauci was one of three authors in a paper recently published in the New England Medical Journal claiming that "the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza."" ... "He states that the real death rate of this virus could be five or more times lower, at 0.025 percent to 0.625 percent."
https://www.collective-evolution.com/2020/03/28/covid-19-case-fatality-rate-may-be-considerably-less-than-1-dr-anthony-fauci

 

[Linda]

As a math person, I know the underlying raw data is the only way to understand what is going on. As soon as you start making assumptions, then the numbers can really skew. So, I'm going to share the raw data from my area periodically to see exactly how this disease is moving through my area.

Some things to understand - Travis County is in Central Texas and includes the City of Austin, which is the capital of Texas. As of 2018, the population was 1.25 million, the median age was 34.5 years, and the median income was $76,392. It is known as Silicon Hills because of the concentration of high-tech businesses. There are 3 main hospital groups with excellent care, as well as 2 medical schools in the area. Being in the southwest US, we have access to plenty of fruits and vegetables and mild temperatures that allow people to be outside most of the year.

The process is to first go through screening via phone with your physician or a tele-health site to determine the next step. If a Covid test is recommended, it is possible to use a drive-thru screening site. All non-essential hospital stays and/or surgeries have been put on hold for the time being.

March 23 Data
1 death of an 86-yr-old male


March 27
No additional deaths

 

[Sinera]

Interesting although certainly controversial (from my favourite German alternative journalism channel with English subs, so I can share it here):

» Mediziner gegen Medien – Gastbeitrag von Billy Six - NuoViso.TV

» Mediziner gegen Medien – Gastbeitrag von Billy Six - NuoViso.tv – Mehr sehen als anderswo – Filme die Ihnen die Augen öffnen!

nuoviso.tv

All the interviews shown and made are with doctors and some virus experts. Note that the Berlin Charité university hospital is THE VERY central and authority institution of virology and health here in Germany, next to the RKI (Robert Koch Institute in Berlin, which is an equivalent to the CDC in the US).

Translation of description text (by the translation site https://www.online-translator.com/, have no time to do it myself, but made some edits for corrections and better understanding):

29th of March, 2020

Billy Six visits the hospital of Charité in Berlin and finds no C*rona illnesses. Also doctors get a chance to speak: There is no Pandemic.

We must have the right to form own opinion from all sources. The state does not want this apparently, so it is to be protected meanwhile really sensibly the "critical" videos. Also for the historians who must analyse, perhaps, as a new totalitarian system could be set up.

Corona is suited perfectly for it to limit civil rights or to abolish completely.
Corona makes it possible that people can be put voluntarily under quarantine what is nothing else than another form of custody.
Corona makes it possible that people may not assemble any more or want. Restriction of the freedom of assembly
Corona makes, for the purpose of maintenance of the public order, the complete supervision
The Corona virus generates fear. This fear is more contagious than the virus. And this seems artificial! Since if the person is afraid only, he lets everything with himself happen and talk himself into everything.“ (Quotation quay Jan Weyers)

Interesting also that Dr. Beselsky (who also was a virologist but a dentist now) says the same like Sadhguru (see thread there) that our viruses are not our lethal enemies at all. He says it is about 'information exchange' playing a role in micro-evolutionary processes and also consciousness has the most important and vital role in it.
Also the flu vaccine is according to evidence-based research (www.cochrane.org) not proven to prevent the flu but rather even cause it. This maybe also applies to the pandemic Spanish influenza of 2018.

As said, controversial as it still does not yet entirely explain for me (althouth the report tries to) the many problems of Italian and French hospitals. Maybe it is their health system and missing capacity for lung intensive care this year but then they also should have these problems with a normal influenza wave every year?

Btw, even the Russians have come to help the Italians now with expert biodefense Hazmat teams on location because they cannot do it alone. https://www.rt.com/news/484343-italy-russia-covid19-response/ (Yeah, evil Ruskies are invading NATO territory to help now, good fodder for the Western cold-war media and Russia hoaxers again ...)

Whatever the truth is which we will never entirely know, after all, it's a viewpoint and an investigation worth considering.

 

[Angela]

I've been following Douglas G. Frank on Facebook for the past bunch of days. (Dr. Frank Models). He does analysis charts and teaches this stuff. Has been doing it for (I think I read) 40 years now.
His charts look optimistic. The past day or so is looking like the peak for the US. (so long as there are no bizarre extras like spring break returnees or people deciding to break quarantine suddenly.)

He's suggesting that be Easter and possibly by the end of the month (to be on the safe side) the US may be through it. New York city is making the number so much higher because the outbreak there is apparently pretty bad. But he only goes off of death counts. The main real number data that can be used.

 

[Lila]

Also the flu vaccine is according to evidence-based research (www.cochrane.org) not proven to prevent the flu but rather even cause it. This maybe also applies to the pandemic Spanish influenza of 2018.

This link did not take me to a study on flu prevention. I could not readily find it.
Any suggestions?

 

[Sinera]

This link did not take me to a study on flu prevention. I could not readily find it.
Any suggestions?

He did not name a specific study or studies (see video), he named just this website/organisation. I know Cochrane already from other critical studies especially related to the influenza vaccine. Maybe use search function on that site. There are however all kinds of results it seems. Some may also be positive towards some kinds of vaccines or leave the result open. But it still shows that Cochrane is at least more unbiased than some other organisations who have more direct links to Pharma.

 

[Sinera]

At least in my country more and more doctors and virologists come forward stating this is no pandemic and it is all exaggerated (here: 'draconic' - interesting choice of word) measures taken. Another example here. CE has also reported on it. The video has subtitles again, you can easily activate them with the YT 'CC'-button if you don't know this yet (assuming you do not watch a lot of foreign language subbed vids).

Renowned Microbiology Specialist On Why He Believes Coronavirus Measures Are “Draconian” (Video)

It’s a very interesting time in human history. The birth of alternative media outlets has allowed information to spread across the globe, rapidly. Today, extreme measures have been taken and are being taken to label information as ‘false news.’ Granted, a lot of information out there is indeed...

www.collective-evolution.com

 

[Lila]

He did not name a specific study or studies (see video), he named just this website/organisation.

Thanks, that's helpful as I didn't have time to view the whole video.

Maybe use search function on that site.

I did search the site and did not find that information though there is a lot of information there so there is a chance I could have missed it. I did find a lot of data and analyses of studies that looked at things like which measures should be taken for protection and their conclusions were that the quality of the data was very poor.

I know Cochrane already from other critical studies especially related to the influenza vaccine... But it still shows that Cochrane is at least more unbiased than some other organisations who have more direct links to Pharma.

I've also found the Cochrane results to be more reliable than a lot of sources; that's why I was interested in such a conclusion having come from them. I expected they'd be more likely to say that more data was needed.

 

[Pucksterguy]

I'm kinda thinking this should peak and then start to peter out in about 2 weeks. By then everybody who's gonna get it will have.

 

[Linda]

One of the graphs presented in today's US press conference was interesting because it showed slower growth even in California and Washington State versus New York. That state has significant international travel and was behind the curve on mediation, as it promoted the Lunar New Year celebration, for example.

Looks like Travis County is experiencing the growth peak, moving from 160 to 244 total cases in 4 days. There was a second death of a woman in her 80s. The growth still is fairly steady across the age groups.

 

[Pucksterguy]

Posting this for June It's David Ickes account on the virus...

 

[Sinera]

Another renowned Doc from my country came forward. It should be noted that both (Bhakti and Wodarg) are actually highly regarded research experts in their field. Of course they get the full flak now from the mainstream and their minions, including the multitudes of fearful sheeple.

Wodarg is not new to this situation since he was also an outspoken opponent of the swine flue "pandamic" fear porn 10 years ago and is even featured in an important documentary of the time that criticized it. It is remarkable that this documentary called 'Profits/Profeteers From Fear' was then still produced by a mainstream outlet (Arte) which would probably be impossible today due to the censorship and streamlining of the MSM.

How very long ago 2009 already seems to be ...

Renowned German Pulmonologist Questions Coronavirus Measures & If They’re Necessary (Video)

Obviously, like everyone else out there, I myself am definitely an advocate of the “safety first” rule when it comes to situations like the one we’re currently facing with the new coronavirus. This doesn’t mean that we cannot question what’s going on, and the day we stop questioning what’s...

www.collective-evolution.com

Quote (last sentence): "The king is naked."

 

[Linda]

Two days later the count has gone up by 107 to 351. Over 60 is about 15%, with the majority in the 20-59 year-old range. There has been one more death, a man in his 60s.

The big jump in the 20-year-old range is from the university students who went to Cabo for spring break because the tour group said it was safe and would not refund the money. Interestingly, the company is not returning calls now. Of 100 students on the trip, 44 came back testing positive and 24 of those were from Austin.

Data as of 6 PM 4/2/20.

 

[Lila]

Two days later the count has gone up by 107 to 351. Over 60 is about 15%, with the majority in the 20-59 year-old range. There has been one more death, a man in his 60s.

The big jump in the 20-year-old range is from the university students who went to Cabo for spring break because the tour group said it was safe and would not refund the money. Interestingly, the company is not returning calls now. Of 100 students on the trip, 44 came back testing positive and 24 of those were from Austin.

Data as of 6 PM 4/2/20.

View attachment 9422

You're getting some great, detailed data there.

 

[Linda]

You're getting some great, detailed data there.

Thanks, I'm doing this because most of the data we see is generalized or compressed. I want to see how this thing moves through a community that I know about - in other words, without assumptions.

 

[Lila]

I'll be watching what you find out closely as I, too, would like to see something like that; from a source I trust.
That last point about a trusted source is key for me!

On another note, someone recently showed me a report about Icelandic data that I gather was done to try to find out how many people had the corona in a community by testing most or all of a specific community. They found that about half of folks tested positive for corona without any symptoms. Of course that means that if a country, city, place is testing only folks with symptoms they are grossly underestimating how many people are encountering the virus and that it will transmit very easily across a community; which is exactly what we are seeing. It also means that most of us who encounter corona do so well that we don't even know we have it.

Interestingly, the reactions to this piece of news (news from Iceland that 50% of folks testing positive to corona without symptoms) appeared to be like a mini-psych test to see if one was seeing things in a 'glass half empty' or 'glass half full' type of way, e.g.
For some the initial reaction was 'Oh no! That means it's going to infect so many more people because you can never know who has it!"
For others the reaction was "Awesome, half of us don't even know we have it."

I find that so many of us alternate between glass full/glass empty from time to time.

 

[Laron]

Moving some content over to this thread:

From Pucksterguy:

This is about an article Lila first posted and It seems like a good idea to talk about a life after the Virus. Do we go back to the same old same old or do we boldly go and choose a new reality. I've heard the virus may facilitate a reset in society. What do you want to see?

Charles Eisenstein | The Coronation

Covid-19 is showing us that when humanity is united in common cause, phenomenally rapid change is possible. None of the world’s problems are technically difficult to solve; they originate in human disagreement. In coherency, humanity’s creative powers are boundless.

charleseisenstein.org

 

[Laron]

CDC Tells Hospitals To List COVID as Cause of Death Even if You're Just Assuming or It Only Contributed
"Issued March 24, the guidance tells hospitals to list COVID-19 as a cause of death regardless of whether or not there’s actual testing to confirm that’s the case... What happens when someone suffering from late-stage cancer or liver failure dies in the hospital? If that person was in the final stages of life and no testing is done and no autopsy conducted, what are we to assume? If no testing is done and a patient’s symptoms are close enough to the seasonal flu, will that person’s death automatically be attributed to COVID-19?.. There’s no doubt that this guidance will inflate the numbers, the only question is how drastically... In places like New York City, where medical professionals are painfully overstretched, anyone who dies with an infection that’s vaguely COVID-19-like could potentially have COVID-19 listed as their cause of death. Consider, for instance, that the CDC is estimating there were between 24,000 and 63,000 deaths in the United States from influenza between October and March. In NYC, does that mean some of those deaths got lumped under COVID-19? Will this keep on happening? This is a haphazard way to gather data at a time when that data needs to be more accurate than ever. We can and should do better than this."
https://www.westernjournal.com/cdc-tells-hospitals-list-covid-cause-death-even-just-assuming-contributed/

 

[Linda]

The following chart is as of 6 PM 4/5/20. Three days ago, the total was 351 cases. So, we are seeing a steady climb. I'm watching to see how long it takes for the number of new cases to slow down or level out. Looks like an age correction in the 1-9 yr-old category and consistent growth in the 20-69 yr-old categories. Cases for people at the young and older ends of the age ranges are lower.

As of 4/2/20, there were 3 deaths, all of people over 60. As of 4/5/20, there are 3 more deaths (total 6), and they are a woman in her 70s, a man in his 30s, and a woman in her 50s.

The data also is presented by zip code (US mail designation for an area). One very small but densely populated area is known as West Campus, which is adjacent to the campus of the University of Texas, and is heavily populated by college students (lots of condos and apartments). As of 4/5/20, there were 40 identified cases there. Right now, 51,000 students are finishing out the semester with online classes. Those who lived in on-campus dorms had to leave, presumably for home.

I don't believe anyone has numbers on how many students remain in Austin, but since most live on leases that expire in May, it is possible that a fair number of students remain. What happens when many of these students return home after the semester ends in mid-May. Also, throw into this mix is the large number of students from other countries. The number of cases in Austin is projected to peak around late April or early May. There are many facets to this particular situation.