This is a comprehensive post.
Admins: Feel free to break this and post on respective threads.
Observations on Covid19:
1) Anybody who calls themselves "experts", including Fauci, are idiots. There has never been a pandemic that has a never-ending virus. Those of you who believe MSM and governments (crazy Newsom, Whitmer, Cuomo, Gates) that a vaccine is needed, are deluded.
Simply: for the past 3-4 decades, has there ever been a vaccine successfully made for HIV? No.
Therefore, there will be no universal vaccine successfully made for Covid19, which has 4 HIV genes.
It is impossible - not to mention now that it has mutated into at least 20-30 strains, more as time passes.
In addition, the only vaccines that have worked are the "old" stable diseases - mumps, chicken pox, TB, etc.
Before Obama's and the Democrat's open borders directive, the USA actually eradicated TB and others.
Unfortunately, these are back in the USA.
The annual flu vaccine is a crapshoot, like fashion trendsetters in the winter. Big Pharma tries to guess what the next season's "flu" is, then produces a flu vaccine to cover it. This is why the flu vaccine is only 20-30% effective annually.
Second, the "experts" in charge are not for public health (in terms of overall health, including economics/finance/social), but for public "medical" health. As Cuomo and Newsom put it, they are willing to sacrifice EVERYTHING if just to "save one life", it will be worth it. As mentioned above, part of this is HIV. It is most likely never-ending, meaning it is entirely probable that after the initial "curve" flattening, the world will need to force herd immunity. In essence, Darwin's theory of evolution is playing out right now, and we are forced to be the experiment since CCP opened Pandora's box. See Germany and China, they are experiencing renewed outbreaks locally after relaxing restrictions, and forced to lock down locally again. This will repeat on forever.
At some point, it may be better to just open everything, ask people to wear masks, and let the world population work its way through this forced evolution experiment. We have to juggle the risks of Covid19 with the 100% certainty of complete economic collapse.
FYI = Bill Gates is not in this to "save the world". He is in this to make Microsoft the "new OS" for government-mandated digital (with a RF-enabled swallowable pill) ID system, which would net Microsoft untold billions in new business, possibly trillions if you add vaccine development, tracing, and digital currency system.
Fauci was director of NIH at the time that the NIH directly funded part of the coronavirus project in Wuhan lab. This is partly why is he trying to stay onboard so he does not get indicted. He will be indicted, since the investigations are ongoing. And he is trying monetize the situation by promoting a vaccine, a la Bill Gates.
The interesting thing is ancedotally, lots of old cheap medicines (hydroxychloroquine regimen - 3 types of medicine, not just one) work against Covid19, yet MSM and big Pharma keeps misrepresenting completely misleading studies to discredit them all. And public health depts are in cahoots with them.
2) About the pandemic models: Models will always be wrong, always. Mathematical models are build for 3 reasons:
a) historical: model is built to recreate phenomena based on history in order to understand history.
This is what most mathematical models do. We do this all the time, even in elementary school. graph curves. This is easy
because all assumptions are already set in history - there is no need to adjust and adapt while running
the model. What needs to be done is to tweak and adjust conditions before running it, and that's what
we do until we find the optimal fit, best fit - depending on what statistical test we want to meet.
b) future seek: model is built to predict future phenomena.
this tends to be more complicated as it requires someone
to first build a historical model, understand the mechanisms and assumptions, then build the model.
However, due to uncertainty, it requires ranges of probabilities (Monte Carlo) in order to build up a
probability curve projection.
this is mostly seen in weather forecasts and stock prediction algorithms, but they require tweaks and
adjustments often due to changing conditions and assumptions.
c) behavior adaptation: this one is a mix of a and b, but requires one to adjust assumptions and variables to meet
"certain" outcomes to "influence" behavior.
pandemic models are actually very simple curve models, but they make infinite assumptions about
everything - social, economic, medical, political, etc. A pandemic is in reality localized; it depends on the
infected carriers moving from A to B. Very similar to transportation network models.
Therefore, the pandemic models will always fail - Los Angeles,
New York, London, Tokyo, Moscow, Paris, Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, etc.
will always be the focal points of any pandemic due to being critical (popular) nodes in the world economy,
whereas Arkansas, Alaska, New Zealand, Sweden will never be as bad.
For this reason, governments and public health are forced to make a decision. If they left things as is,
the pandemic models will play out as predicted, meaning LA and NYC would have had millions of infected
and the medical systems would completely collapse, death rates would skyrocket as a result.
Or they exaggerate the models, as Fauci, Cuomo, Newsom did (half of CA will be infected!), lockdown certain parts of the
population, shut down group activities such as baseball, basketball, hockey games, and "flatten" the curve.
Which they did. It worked for the time being.
This is why all the models are hilariously wrong. The lockdowns worked to slow infection rates and
not create a medical breakdown.
Also, the mortality rate is not static - it is dependent on so many variables, including the medical system,
preexisting conditions, prescription side effects, etc. - that we cannot compare Covid19 to anything
before. Again, Covid19 has HIV, which still has no known cure or vaccine, and can hide dormant in the
body. Hence all the evidence of reinfections. It is actually more practical to give custom mortality rates for metros
and regions instead of trying to calculate a global mortality rate.
3) Globally we are seeing in real-time a Darwinian population experiment: Covid19 risks vs. 100% instant economic collapse. People across the world are rebelling against the lockdowns since lockdowns mean no income. It will be interesting as we see the clash between governments/medical systems vs. people and the economy.
Contact tracing only works if you started early and are in a closed system. See the island nation of Taiwan, which technically has only one major airport, and has been skeptical of the PRC since forever. They have been scanning China for daily info, and that is how they caught wind of the Wuhan coronavirus early. Also, Taiwan created the contact tracing app only for those who are infected and suspected to be infected, and once cleared, can be deleted from the system, so it is only a temporary tracing program.
Contact tracing fails when you are already in a pandemic, or you are in a complex system; i.e., big country with borders and 1000s of airports. Any EU country will fail. A critical hub like Singapore will always fail, since too many flights and travelers stop by every day. Russia, US failed for different reasons, but the same principle applies - open systems - huge landmass with 1000's of airports and borders.
What is happening right now is governments are using contact tracing as an excuse to push responsibility upon the population, to "demonstrate" that they are doing something to protect the public when they are actually completely helpless (due to asymptomatic Covid19 carriers). What we are seeing is complete destruction of all rights and privacy for the sake of "contact tracing" in the middle of the pandemic. They are creating permanent tracing apps, just like China's social credit system (which Russia copied as well, even though it is useless since Russia just rocketed to #2 in Covid19 cases). This is where Bill Gates comes in again. Microsoft can jump in and rake in billions. Apple and Google cooperated to create a tracing program across their platforms.
We are in the process of defining civilization - Orwellian techno-dictator society vs. a free, rights-based, privacy-protected, property-respected society. This is the backdrop of the global Darwinian population experiment.
*****
Overnight (PST), it turns out Fauci did admit in his testimony to the Senate that a vaccine is no guarantee:
Fauci testified in front of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions about the road to reopening businesses.
www.cnbc.com
Second wave, etc. - updated info:
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
extra comment: please note that although Russia is #2 in "official" Covid19 cases, we all know China lied, they should be the runaway #1. Same
with Iran, which is probably the runaway #2 due to religious fervor and other social norms ignoring all safe practices (keep hands
clean and away from face, wear masks, stay a safe distance).
extra comment 2: social distancing and masks are meant to reduce the probability of infection. Social distancing by itself does not work - Japanese research showed that Covid19 can be airborne and can reach distances of 15-20 ft depending on airflow. Many countries are also realizing that Covid19 can survive on surfaces for days - hence hospital floors, shoes, socks are also Covid19 carriers.
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but it proved the point that the test is not robust, precise and accurate.
This week’s Covid-19 culture war target is ... universities!
